The Lucky Winner Trap
The Thursday Trader's Tip edition offers to-the-point trading performance advice that can be read under 5 minutes.
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Every trader gets lucky once in a while.
You take a trade that wasn’t part of your plan, but somehow, it works.
Maybe you entered too early, maybe you ignored your stop-loss, maybe you chased price at the worst possible level—but for some reason, the market spared you.
You close the trade with a profit, feeling like you just dodged a bullet. Maybe you even think, Hmm, maybe my instinct is onto something…
And that’s where the real danger begins.
When One Lucky Trade Starts Changing Your Brain
One lucky winner is not such a big deal—until it starts rewiring your brain.
Your mind learns from reinforcement. That unexpected win creates a dopamine hit, subtly rewarding the mistake. The next time you see a similar setup, your brain whispers: Remember last time? It worked. Just go for it.
Slowly, bad habits creep in. Rules loosen. Execution gets sloppier. That one lucky win is the starting point that reshapes your trading behavior without you even noticing.
Some traders experience repetitive lucky wins and grow their accounts despite breaking rules. It feels like skill, but it’s just an extended game of Russian roulette. And when luck runs out (because it always does), the blow-up is catastrophic.
Why Most Traders Handle It the Wrong Way
The market is a machine that tricks you into thinking you're smarter than you are.
— Nassim Taleb (Fooled by Randomness)
Most traders justify it as, Well, a win is a win! Or they think, As long as I stay disciplined in my other trades, this one-off mistake isn’t a big deal.
But the brain doesn’t work like that.
Even one reinforcement of a bad behavior can plant a seed that slowly grows into a bigger problem.
The more you allow luck to validate poor decisions, the harder it becomes to stick to your edge when it really matters.
How I Handle a Lucky Win (So It Doesn't Destroy Me Later)
I’ve learned to treat a lucky win like a potential virus in my trading system.
Here’s how I do it:
If I realize I’m in an invalid trade that’s going against me → I close it immediately. No waiting. No justifications. Cut it off before my brain starts finding reasons to hold.
If the trade is going in my favor → I move my stop to breakeven, identify the highest probability level for a quick exit, and remind myself: “Anything can happen.”
Once the trade is closed → I immediately journal it as a mistake, even if it was a win. Writing it down weakens the neural connection between the mistake and the reward. The goal here is to stop the dopamine reinforcement.
During my review → I analyze whether the mistake happened due to a lack of awareness or a lack of emotional control. If it was awareness (it mostly is), I work on catching those setups before I enter. If it was impulse-driven, I focus on refining my emotional discipline.
By treating lucky wins as errors rather than achievements, I make sure they don’t plant the seeds of bad habits that could ruin my long-term performance.
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One Small Action That Will Keep You Safe
Next time you catch yourself in a lucky trade, journal it immediately as a mistake, even if it’s going in your favor. Write down:
Why the entry was invalid/poor;
What led you to take it;
And once the trade is closed, how you can prevent it next time.
This small habit will prevent a lucky win from spiraling into a destructive pattern.
Peaceful trading,
Sara
Some Paid Subscribers Notes
Related Reads:
Sara, you mention "If I realize I'm in an invalid trade that's going against me → I close it immediately," but then you mention that if the price goes in my favor, "I move my stop to breakeven." It's a bit contradictory. Because you quickly realize, in a split second, when you've made a mistake in your entry due to a lack of focus or FOMO.
I'm putting a little pressure on you in my comment ;) because "it depends" is certainly a key word in trading.